The next General Election…
Quick quiz for you: the safest Parliamentary seat? Liverpool Walton, previously the seat of new Metro Mayor Steve Rotherham and now held by a relatively unknown ex-union man, Daniel Carden. The most marginal Parliamentary seat? North East Fife held by the SNP by just 2 votes in June.
Why the quiz? Well as part of the DI team’s political analysis this summer, we’ve been crunching the numbers on what the next General Election could look like. Some interesting factoids for you (excluding Northern Irish seats):
Fact 1 – Very marginal seats (majority of 5% or less) – 91 (40 Con, 30 Lab, 15 SNP, 4 LD, 2 PC).
Fact 2 – Marginal seats (majority of 5-10%) – 71 (27 Con, 24 Lab, 15 SNP, 4 LD, 1 PC).
At first take, this would look like the Tories being most vulnerable. But bear in mind that these were seats that other parties could not take from the Tories despite May running a contender for the worst election campaign ever.
Theoretically more threatened with extinction are the SNP (where 30 out of their 35 seats are marginal), the Lib Dems (8 out of 12 seats are similarly vulnerable) and Plaid Cymru (where 3 out of their 4 seats are marginal).
Fact 3 – Safe seats (majority of 20% or more) – 360 (194 Con, 165 Lab, 1 Green).
These are seats that just don’t change hands and the Tories have a good chunk more of them. But interestingly, Labour has many more ‘ultra safe seats’ (ie those with a majority of 40% or more, including 34 where they have more than 50% of the vote!).
How well our democracy is working.